West Wing-style fiscal policies aren't the only way to fight the next...
Spending and tax measures are in favour, but central banks’ monetary policy has a role to playWill the next recession be worse than you think? With the major central banks having little space for...
View ArticleA coronavirus recession could be supply-side with a 1970s flavour | Kenneth...
The most recent collapses were caused by a drop in demand – the next one could mimic the oil shockIt is too soon to predict the long-run arc of the coronavirus outbreak. But it is not too soon to...
View ArticleThe 2008 financial crisis will be seen as a dry run for Covid-19 cataclysm |...
Short-term collapse in global output likely to rival or exceed any recession of the last 150 yearsWith each passing day, the 2008 global financial crisis increasingly looks like a mere dry run for...
View ArticleDeglobalisation will hurt growth everywhere | Kenneth Rogoff
The US has more to lose from rising economic nationalism than some of its politicians realiseThe post-pandemic world economy seems likely to be a far less globalised economy, with political leaders and...
View ArticleWill Covid make countries drop cash and adopt digital currencies? | Kenneth...
Coronavirus has accelerated the shift away from banknotes – central banks must act fast to catch upAs the Covid-19 crisis accelerates the long-term shift away from cash (at least in tax-compliant,...
View ArticleAfter coronavirus we should be ready for an uncertainty pandemic
A post-pandemic expansion – if there is one – may take years to meet the definition of recoveryThe next few months will tell us a lot about the shape of the coming global recovery. Despite ebullient...
View ArticleWhy are stock market prices rising despite the Covid pandemic? | Kenneth Rogoff
One reason is that big corporations have not faced the economic pain that small businesses have Coronavirus – latest updatesSee all our coronavirus coverageWhy are stock market valuations soaring when...
View ArticleExchange rates have been stable in the Covid crisis – are we heading for a...
There has been a surprising lack of volatility during the pandemic and US election, but this could changeWith alternative assets such as gold and Bitcoin thriving in the pandemic, some top economists...
View ArticleInfrastructure spending needs careful controls amid the Covid crisis |...
The UK, US and EU plan to spend to create growth – but they must be realistic about costsEncouraging news about more effective antiviral treatments and promising vaccines is fuelling cautious optimism...
View ArticleDeveloping economies need a fairer way to help them decarbonise | Kenneth Rogoff
Carbon border taxes alone will not encourage poorer countries to meet climate goalsWith the US president-elect Joe Biden’s incoming administration promising a fresh, rational approach to climate...
View ArticleUneven recovery from Covid recession could hit poorer countries hard |...
If higher inflation leads the US Fed to raise rates soon, emerging markets will face problemsEconomic recovery, like Covid-19 vaccines, will not be evenly distributed around the world over the coming...
View ArticleThe US dollar’s hegemony is looking fragile
The modernisation of China’s exchange-rate system could deal the currency a painful blowThe mighty US dollar continues to reign supreme in global markets. But the greenback’s dominance may well be more...
View ArticleTackling cross-country inequality is the key to global stability | Kenneth...
The advanced economies and China are rebounding from the Covid crisis, but there is a dangerous global divergenceWhat is remarkable about the increase in nationalist sentiment across the developed...
View ArticlePutin’s invasion of Ukraine suggests the ‘peace dividend’ is fading | Kenneth...
Russia’s attack reminds western nations that they must leave sufficient finances to guard against external aggressionUkraine Russia war: latest updatesRussia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine should be a...
View ArticleRisk of recession in Europe, US and China is rising by the day | Kenneth Rogoff
Threat of synchronised global downturn may recede by late 2022 but collapse in one region will affect othersIs the global economy flying into a perfect storm, with Europe, China, and the US all...
View ArticleCrypto crisis means regulation will come sooner rather than later | Kenneth...
Cryptocurrencies’ use in avoiding taxes, laws and capital controls makes restrictions seem inevitableWith cryptocurrency prices plummeting as central banks start to raise interest rates, many are...
View ArticleGlobal oil and gas prices have been highly volatile – what will happen next?...
Supply and demand shocks seem likely to keep prices up despite fears of recession in US and EuropeOver the past two and a half years, world oil and gas prices have been subject to demand shocks and...
View ArticleWill the dollar’s recent rises end in whiplash? | Kenneth Rogoff
Some previous surges were followed by sharp declines, but world instability means the euro and yen could fallThe US dollar has been on a tear this summer. The Japanese yen and the euro have fallen to...
View ArticleCrypto will survive the FTX collapse – but more scandals will follow |...
Bitcoin and ethereum prices have plummeted, but it is unlikely the US will ban cryptocurrencies soon The epic collapse of wunderkind Sam Bankman-Fried’s $32bn (£27bn) crypto empire, FTX, looks set to...
View ArticleThe world economy faces a huge stress test in 2023 | Kenneth Rogoff
With inflation on the rise and the era of ultra-low interest rates over, there could well be a systemic crisisThe fact that the world did not experience a systemic financial crisis in 2022 is a minor...
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